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  A slippery slope

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Author Topic:   A slippery slope
eprice2956
Member
posted 06-08-2010 08:36 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for eprice2956   Click Here to Email eprice2956     Edit/Delete Message
I just thought some may find this interesting.
http://www.midlandsconnect.com/news/story.aspx?id=467390

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skipwebb
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posted 06-08-2010 04:35 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for skipwebb   Click Here to Email skipwebb     Edit/Delete Message
I, for one, find this troubling. Inconclusive or no opinion is just that. No opinion. When we, as polygraph examiners start providing opinions on no opinion charts, we are stepping backwards into the late 50s and early 60s when we did global analysis and had no numeric scoring.

Providing an unsubstantiated opinion that a person would probably pass if given multiple tests that haven't happened yet is makes the examiner a fotune teller not a polygraph examiner.

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Ted Todd
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posted 06-08-2010 05:04 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Ted Todd     Edit/Delete Message
Did you see the video??

I don't know how anyone can give an accurate polygraph test on a analog instrument, while standing up and looking at a watch?? Anybody know these guys?

Ted

[This message has been edited by Ted Todd (edited 06-08-2010).]

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sackett
Moderator
posted 06-08-2010 05:13 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for sackett   Click Here to Email sackett     Edit/Delete Message
could one of you "old guys" like Ted tell me what four channel analog he was using. Did it have a splitter for the movement sensor?

I may try to get one of those before I bid for a TV show...


Jim

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eprice2956
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posted 06-08-2010 06:09 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for eprice2956   Click Here to Email eprice2956     Edit/Delete Message
It also stated that someone "observed". There were several red flags. maybe it was just a case of bad reporting by the media.

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Barry C
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posted 06-08-2010 08:52 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Barry C   Click Here to Email Barry C     Edit/Delete Message
This is the reason Ray and others have been saying we need to know what a given score means, and the reason ESS has come about. Whereas we don't know enough about the scorer to determine any real numbers, a score should tell us something about the probability of such a score resulting from a truthful or deceptive subject.

A +3 is indicative of truthfulness, but how much of a difference, probability wise, is a +4 or a +36 for that matter? Just because somebody set some arbitrary cut-off doesn't make it the one and only cut score anybody should apply. We need to get away from such rudimentary ways of thinking. We now have a scoring system (ESS) that will provide the info that is lacking in this story.

There's not a whole lot I like about this story, but is does give us something to talk about and learn a lesson or two.

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Ted Todd
Member
posted 06-09-2010 11:38 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Ted Todd     Edit/Delete Message
Barry,

Does this help? !

Ted

Tuesday, Jun 8, 2010 12:30 ET
Second alleged Nikki Haley beau takes polygraph
By Alex Pareene
AP/Patrick Collard
South Carolina state Rep. Nikki HaleyBy the end of the day, Nikki Haley could be the Republican nominee for governor of South Carolina, running to replace the sex scandal-tarred Mark Sanford. But because this is South Carolina we're talking about, two men have come forward to say that they had extramarital affairs with Haley. The first one released phone call logs and text messages. The second has now taken a lie detector test.

Larry Marchant, a local lobbyist and former strategist for Haley opponent (and dim-bulb bigot) Andre Bauer, says he had a one-night stand with Haley at a "school choice convention" in 2008. The local Fox affiliate applied the polygraph. The results: inconclusive:


"I can tell you if I was going to bet my next paycheck as to whether or not he was telling the truth about the allegations he has made, I would bet that sooner or later he would pass that test successfully," says the second licensed examiner, Joseph Gallimore.

Polygraph scores range from negative to positive based on whether a subject appears to be lying or telling the truth, said Davis. A score of +4 is required to "pass" a polygraph test. Marchant scored +3 on the question of whether he had sex with Nikki Haley during a trip to Salt Lake City, as he has publicly claimed.


Yesterday -- again, because this is South Carolina -- Lt. Gov. Bauer himself released the results of the polygraph he took, which he said proves that he wasn't trying to push the affair story to damage Haley. (Marchant, suspiciously, "admitted" to the indiscretion the day he was fired from the Bauer campaign, less than a week before today's election.)

Haley told the local media that all these allegations happened as soon as polls showed her with a lead over her rivals. She was with her husband, but he is not allowed to talk:


A campaign worker literally stepped in-between Michael Haley and another reporter who started asking him questions, saying Michael Haley wouldn't do interviews even though he appeared like he was about to say something.


Haley is ahead in all recent polls, but she still might have to endure a June 22 runoff if she can't crack 50 percent of the vote. As of yesterday, Public Policy Polling had Haley at 43 percent.

[This message has been edited by Ted Todd (edited 06-09-2010).]

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